个体对通勤时间的态度和偏好视角下的职住空间失调

研究职住空间失调能够帮助我们更好地理解个体对职住分离的态度和偏好,并有助于在制定政策时考虑通勤者更真实的需求和期望.本次研究采用理想通勤时间和实际通勤时间的匹配程度来度量职住空间失调,并以昆明市为案例进行了实证研究.描述性统计结果表明,大多数通勤者认为他们的职住空间是失调的,有41.04%的通勤者遭受重度空间失调.进一步,基于序次Logistic回归模型分析了职住空间失调的影响因素.结果表明,出行方式、居住区位、年龄、受教育程度和家庭有无小孩对职住空间失调有显著影响.同时,由于个体对通勤时间的态度和偏好的异质性,更长的通勤时间并不总是意味着职住空间更加失调.     

Modelling parking choices considering user heterogeneity

We examine car driver’s behaviour when choosing a parking place; the alternatives available are free on-street parking, paid on-street parking and parking in an underground multi-storey car park. A mixed logit model, allowing for correlation between random taste parameters and estimated using stated choice data, is used to infer values of time, both when looking for a parking space and for accessing the final destination. Apart from the cost of parking, we found that vehicle age was a key variable when choosing where to park in Spain. We also found that the perception of the parking charge was fairly heterogeneous, depending both on the drivers’ income levels and whether or not they were local residents. Our results can be generalised for personalised policy making related with parking demand management.     

User perspectives in public transport timetable optimisation

The present paper deals with timetable optimisation from the perspective of minimising the waiting time experienced by passengers when transferring either to or from a bus. Due to its inherent complexity, this bi-level minimisation problem is extremely difficult to solve mathematically, since timetable optimisation is a non-linear non-convex mixed integer problem, with passenger flows defined by the route choice model, whereas the route choice model is a non-linear non-continuous mapping of the timetable. Therefore, a heuristic solution approach is developed in this paper, based on the idea of varying and optimising the offset of the bus lines. Varying the offset for a bus line impacts the waiting time passengers experience at any transfer stop on the bus line.In the bi-level timetable optimisation problem, the lower level is a transit assignment calculation yielding passengers’ route choice. This is used as weight when minimising waiting time by applying a Tabu Search algorithm to adapt the offset values for bus lines. The updated timetable then serves as input in the following transit assignment calculation. The process continues until convergence.The heuristic solution approach was applied on the large-scale public transport network in Denmark. The timetable optimisation approach yielded a yearly reduction in weighted waiting time equivalent to approximately 45 million Danish kroner (9 million USD).     

A time‐staged multi‐objective network‐design model

A multi‐objective, time‐staged network‐design problem is formulated. Through transformation, the problem is decomposed into a set of single‐period, single‐objective problems. Lexicographic ordering is instrumental in effecting this transformation; it also allows a backward‐recursion algorithm to be applied using strong pruning criteria. Furthermore, monotonicity properties enable us to solve the problem using the familiar tree‐search algorithms. The solution method has several desirable properties — as shown by an example and a case study of Tripoli Province, Libya. First, the algorithm ensures continuity of project implementation over the multi time‐periods and provides optimality in later computational stages irrespective of the decision at an interim stage. Second, the algorithm tends to provide accessibility to unconnected regions in the study area at low user‐cost without employing weights to the two objective functions of accessibility and user‐cost efficiency. Such a property is deemed advantageous for suggesting transportation investments based purely on purchasing the greatest benefit for each dollar, with political neutrality strictly maintained.     

Evaluating the effects of bus design on passenger flow: Is agent-based simulation a feasible approach?

In this paper, we propose an agent-based simulation approach that is capable of simulating the flow of passengers on board buses and at bus stops. The intention is that it will be applied during vehicle development to analyze how vehicle design affects passenger flow, and thus also how it affects system performance such as dwell time. In turn, this could aid the developers in making design decisions early in the development process. Besides introducing the simulation tool itself, the paper explores the realism of the data generated by the tool. A number of passenger flow experiments featuring a full-scale bus mockup and 50 participants were carried out. The setup of these experiments mirrored a number of ‘bus journeys’ (regarding vehicle design, number of passengers boarding/alighting at each stop and so on) that had previously been simulated using the simulation tool. When the data from the simulations were compared with the data from the passenger flow experiments, it could be concluded that the tool is indeed able to generate realistic passenger flows, although with some errors when a large number of passengers board/alight. The simulated dwell times were rationally affected by the tested bus layout aspects. It was concluded that the tool makes it possible to evaluate how variations in bus layouts affect passenger flow, providing data of sufficiently high quality to be useful in early phases of vehicle design.     

Forecasting bunker prices; A nonstationary,multivariate methodology

This paper suggests a methodological approach for the forecasting of marine fuel prices. The prediction of the bunker prices is of outmost importance for operators, as bunker prices affect heavily the economic planning and financial viability of ventures and determine decisions related to compliance with regulations. A multivariate nonstationary stochastic model available in the literature is being retrieved, after appropriate adjustment and testing. The model belongs to the class of periodically correlated stochastic processes with annual periodic components. The time series are appropriately transformed to become Gaussian, and then are decomposed to deterministic seasonal characteristics (mean value and standard deviation) and a residual time series. The residual part is proved to be stationary and then is modeled as a Vector AutoRegressive Mooving Average (VARMA) process. Finally, using the methodology presented, forecasts of a tetra-variate and an octa-variate time series of bunker prices are produced and are in good agreement with actual values. The obtained results encourages further research and deeper investigation of the driving characters of the multivariate time series of bunker prices.     

行人过街需要分析研究

通过调查分析研究,运用心理学需要理论和交通工程理论,分析了行人过街过程中的各种需要,包括心理需要、时间和空间需要、环境和其他需要。对过街过程中需要的具体内容进行了阐述。最后总结了各种需要之间的联系。     

中频电源恒反压时间控制方式的研究

研究了单相并联谐振中频电源的晶闸管恒反压时间控制方式,阐述了其工作原理.实验结果证明该控制方式能够在各种扰动情况下,也能确保逆变晶闸管可靠关断。     

薄壁高墩大跨连续刚构桥地震时程反应参数研究

运用大质量法,建立并推导了长大跨度桥梁考虑行波效应的分析模型及解析方程。以内蒙古小沙湾黄河特大桥为工程背景,选取墩身刚度、地震波视波波速、地震波激励方向等主要参数,建立动力计算模型,对该桥上述各种参数工况下地震时程反应作了参数对比分析研究。利用分析结果,探讨了同类桥梁在各种参数变化情况下墩顶位移和墩底内力的变化规律。     

影响塑料发泡颗粒轻质土强度的因素及其试验研究

利用室内试验方法,对水泥掺入量、塑料发泡颗粒体积含有量、养护龄期、养护环境等因素对塑料发泡颗粒轻质土强度发挥的影响进行了分析,得到了塑料发泡颗粒轻质土的强度发挥在各种不同因素影响下的变化规律。结果表明,轻质土的强度随轻质土中水泥含有量的提高及龄期的延长而增长,可以用指数函数描述轻质土强度与龄期、水泥含有量之间的相关关系;增大轻质土中塑料发泡颗粒体积比,引起轻质土的强度下降;水下环境对轻质土的强度发挥不利,为利于轻质土的强度发挥,在工程应用中应考虑采用有效的排水措施或尽量在水上部位使用。